While Bitcoin enthusiasts celebrated an all-time high of $109,241 just a few months ago, the party appears to be grinding to a halt. CryptoQuant’s CEO has issued a sobering warning: the bull market is over. Done. Finished. His prediction? We’re looking at 6-12 months of bearish or sideways action. Not exactly what crypto bros wanted to hear.
This represents a complete 180 from his earlier stance that the bull cycle remained intact. Now, on-chain metrics are flashing warning signals like a Christmas tree in December. MVRV ratio, SOPR, NUPL – alphabet soup that spells trouble for Bitcoin hodlers.
Fresh liquidity is drying up faster than a puddle in the desert. Even worse, new whales are dumping their coins at lower prices. Bitcoin has already slid to around $82,500, marking a nearly 15% decline in just a month. Ki Young Ju’s announcement that all on-chain metrics signal a bear market further confirms the downward trajectory. ETF inflows? Negative for three straight weeks. Yikes.
Money’s running out and big players are bailing. Bitcoin’s down 15% with ETFs bleeding cash for weeks.
History paints an even grimmer picture. Previous market cycles saw Bitcoin crash 77-86% from peak to trough. If the pattern holds, we could be staring at a 65% plunge to $40,000 before this is over. The next real bull run might not materialize until 2026, with the market potentially bottoming around May 2027.
Not everyone’s buying the doom and gloom, though. Some analysts remain stubbornly optimistic, pointing to global M2 money supply reaching new highs and the end of quantitative tightening. These optimists don’t seem concerned about the trading volume decreases that typically characterize prolonged bear markets. They’re predicting another all-time high by April 2025. Someone’s going to be embarrassingly wrong.
Meanwhile, economic headwinds aren’t helping. The OECD just downgraded global GDP growth estimates to 3.1%, and U.S. retail sales disappointed in February.
Long-term holders aren’t panicking yet. But short-term traders are cashing out faster than you can say “cryptocurrency.” One bright spot? Stablecoin supply has surpassed $219 billion, suggesting there’s dry powder waiting on the sidelines. The question is: how long until it’s deployed?
